Out of the total 570 kilometers of Tunisia’s sandy beaches, 190 kilometers are at risk of disappearing in the next decades, due to erosion exacerbated by the sea level rise. What’s driving this phenomenon, and how has the state responded?
What was once considered a distant threat has become a visible reality. Beaches shrink, farmland turns saline, and vital infrastructure hangs on the edge of collapse. Across the country’s shoreline, communities are witnessing the coast retreat at alarming rates, devastating beachside businesses and livelihoods. Yet, despite the escalating threat and warnings from international bodies, Tunisia’s local climate adaptation actions remain limited.
From projections to reality
Currently, the global rate of sea level rise is around 4.5 mm per year. The rate has roughly doubled since 1993 increasing from 2.1- 2.5mm/year. In Tunisia, the effects of rising seas exacerbated by local conditions, caused the shoreline to retreat at a much higher pace. This made the country one of the Mediterranean’s most vulnerable coastlines compared to Morocco, Algeria and Libya. In Hammamet, nearly 24,000 square meters of beach disappeared between 2006 and 2019, with erosion advancing as fast as eight meters per year. On the island of Djerba, long-term monitoring shows annual losses of three to ten meters, a process that has accelerated sharply since 2016. Further north, satellite analyses of the Cape Serrat–Kef Abbed coastline document erosion rates of more than eight meters annually, wiping out dunes and reshaping entire landscapes. In an interview conducted by La Presse, environmental and climate expert Hamdi Hached stated that the fragile Kerkennah Islands, already battered by recurrent floods, could see 12.7% of their territory vanish by 2050. “Sea level rise is a direct existential threat where some parts of Kerkennah may disappear entirely within years if current trends continue”, according to Mehdi Ben Haj, vice-president of the Blue Season Association.
The economic toll on hard-hit regions
This erosion is not only reshaping landscapes at this point, it’s undermining the economy of the hard-hit regions. In an interview conducted by the DW, Sassi Alaya, a seaman and head of the fisheries guild in Gabes, described how disappearing sand and emerging rocks are making fishing increasingly difficult. He explained that this erosion deepened by an already existing crisis, as chemical pollution from nearby factories has long undermined the economies of small-scale fishers. While other fishermen in Ghannouch say their boats and nets are increasingly getting damaged by rocks as they go out to sea. “The beach sand is significantly reduced and rocks are appearing there instead,” Mohamed Ali, 39, a local fisherman explained to Euronews.
Fishermen in Kerkennah as well, especially those relaying on artisanal fishing on fertile shallow waters, are finding it harder to sustain their catches as the sea retreats and their nets repeatedly falter amid rocks. Families in several coastal towns have been living in constant fear of flooding. According to the World Bank country climate and development report of 2023, “a significant share of Tunisia’s land is exposed to climate-induced risks of shoreline erosion, permanent submersion from sea-level rise, and flooding”. The same report notes that by 2050, “ 0.4 percent of the total land area in Tunisia—which includes 24 percent of the populous linear coastal distance—are likely to be affected”
This leads infrastructure including roads, ports and even houses to be severely damaged. Such loss would place an enormous burden on Tunisia’s already struggling economy, threatening vital sectors like tourism, agriculture, and fisheries that millions of people depend on for survival. A World Bank report indicates that without adequate climate action, by 2050, sea level rise could result in land losses worth $1.6 billion, dramatically increase flood risks, and potentially cost $277 million just to repair roads assets. Without even accounting for the massive economic toll on tourism.
Between victims and culprits, where do we stand ?
Climate change isn’t the only driver of Tunisia’s coastal erosion. Human activity, from pollution to coastal constructions, is weakening natural defenses. Around the Bizerte Lagoon, decades of toxic discharges from steel, cement, and shipbuilding industries have contaminated the water with heavy metals and destroyed aquatic vegetation that once anchored sediment and calmed wave action. Without these submerged natural shields, shorelines become more fragile. Waves strike harder, sand drifts away, and erosion accelerates. What happens in the lagoon does not stay there. These degraded ecosystems are directly tied to the stability of nearby coasts, meaning pollution upstream translates into weakened resistance to sea-level rise downstream. Industrial pollution in lagoons doesn’t just poison the water, it also dismantles natural defenses against the sea.
In the Gulf of Gabès, phosphogypsum byproducts from fertilizer factories have led to the loss of nearly 90% of vital Posidonia which represents a key ecosystem that stabilises shorelines and absorbs waves energy. Farther north, and along the Gulf of Tunis, rivers like Oued Meliane carry untreated industrial and domestic wastewater into the sea which contaminates nearby beaches like Ezzahra and damages seagrass which eventually compromises the shoreline’s stability.
Human construction has also made matters worse. Houses, hotels and restaurants built directly on the sand block the natural flow that replenishes beaches and damages dunes and wetlands which essentially act as natural barriers against shoreline erosion. Together, these examples show how urban expansion and pollution are stripping away natural defenses and accelerating the awaiting disaster along Tunisia’s coasts.
Erosion vs Action : is Tunisia winning ?
To combat coastal loss, the government has started a number of programs. These include national adaptation frameworks like the Coastal Protection Program (PPLT) and Sustainable Energy Access and Climate Action Plans (SEACAPs) that were developed for several municipalities, as well as beach nourishment, seawalls, and pilot dune and wetland restoration projects. The Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Protocol and UNDP projects are two examples of international support that offers financial and technical aid to support these initiatives.
Nevertheless, the effectiveness of Tunisia’s response remains low and limited. According to a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace study, only 12% of Tunisian municipalities have adopted climate adaptation strategies, and only 9% have taken mitigation measures. This indicates a lack of funding for large-scale adaptation and a lack of national coordination. The centralized governance structure and financial limitations at the municipal level are to blame for this lack of local action.
In some regions, the coastal setback rules are implemented while overlooked in other regions. Many interventions only temporarily protect specific areas and fail to address the root causes of erosion, which include rising seas and ongoing coastal constructions.
Compared to other Mediterranean states, there is a striking gap. Morocco, for instance, has invested in the restoration of coastal ecosystems and enacted more ambitious legislation, while Tunisia continues to struggle with sorting priorities between economic development and environmental survival.
Standing on the beaches of Hammamet or Djerba today, the crisis is visible with the naked eye. Locals point to where the shoreline once began, often several meters inland from today’s edge. The sea is advancing, quietly but relentlessly. Whether Tunisia chooses to respond with urgency or continue to look away may determine not just the fate of its beaches, but the future of millions who live by the water’s edge.
While sea level rise cannot be stopped, its impacts can be contained if Tunisia acts decisively. Such a step requires more than technical solutions. It demands a firm political will, long-term vision, and a consistent investment.